Prevention & lipidsCohort study
A multistate prediction model for hypertension and cardiovascular disease after pregnancy using routine care data in the Netherlands
- Retrospective cohort study
- nationwide
- registry-based
- multistate prediction model
- stratified, time-dependent Cox model
Authors' conclusion
This study showed future cardiovascular risk can be stratified at 6 weeks postpartum. Women with HDP, low SES, Surinamese origin, and multiple risk factors were identified as the highest-risk groups.
Study context
- Population
- Primiparous women after childbirth, routine care data, the Netherlands
- Participants
- 737,257 primiparous women
- Outcome
- CVD (hospitalization or death from MI or stroke), with hypertension as intermediate outcome and non-CVD mortality as competing risk
- Follow-up
- From 6 weeks after childbirth, maximum 17 years
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Developed hypertension
1.7%
Developed cardiovascular disease (CVD)
0.3%
Predictive performance modest to good (AUCs)
0.65-0.89
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Hypertension risk in Dutch women with PIH, by SES
Hypertension risk by origin and risk-factor combinations
- Surinamese women had higher hypertension risks than Dutch women
- PIH combined with preterm birth and low socioeconomic status (SES) resulted in the highest risks
Original publication
A multistate prediction model for hypertension and cardiovascular disease after pregnancy using routine care data in the Netherlands. Eur J Prev Cardiol. Published 16 September 2026. doi:10.1093/eurjpc/zwag464
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it