A New Biomarker of Aging Derived From Electrocardiograms Improves Risk Prediction of Incident Cardiovascular Disease
Authors' conclusion
Incorporating δ-age into primary prevention risk prediction models significantly improved performance beyond traditional cardiovascular risk factors for the combined outcome and separately for MI and stroke.
Study context
- Population
- Men and women from the Norwegian Tromsø Study in 2015 to 16, followed through 2021 for incident fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) and hemorrhagic or cerebral stroke
- Participants
- 7,108 menEvents: 155 cases of MI and 141 strokes
- Predictors
- δ-age added to traditional risk factors included in the NORRISK 2 score
- Predicted outcome
- incident fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) and hemorrhagic or cerebral stroke
Model performance
As reported in the abstract
Net reclassification improvement
26.0%
95% CI 13.3%–38.1%
Further findings
| Outcome | HR (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| Combined outcome (MI and stroke), per SD increment in δ-age, men and women combined | 1.24 (1.09–1.41) | |
| 0.512Hazard ratio (log scale) |
- Combined outcome (MI and stroke), per SD increment in δ-age, men and women combined: adjusted for traditional risk factors included in the NORRISK 2 score
MI
- Net reclassification improvement
- 17.5% (95% CI: 0.6%-33.5%)
Stroke
- Net reclassification improvement
- 37.2% (95% CI: 20.1%-53.0%)
Combined outcome (MI and stroke), per SD increment in δ-age, men and women combined
- Similar HRs for MI and stroke
- In men, the HR was significant for MI and in women for stroke
Original publication
A New Biomarker of Aging Derived From Electrocardiograms Improves Risk Prediction of Incident Cardiovascular Disease. JACC Adv. Published 13 May 2025. doi:10.
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