Heart failure & cardiomyopathiesCohort study
A Polygenic Risk Score to Predict Incident Heart Failure Across the Spectrum of Cardiovascular Risk
- Pooled cohort analysis of 7 clinical studies
- 6 trials of patients at elevated CV risk
- separate low-risk data set
Authors' conclusion
An HF PRS is a strong and independent predictor for new-onset HF in individuals across the spectrum of cardiovascular risk.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals without heart failure (HF) across the spectrum of CV risk51,627 at elevated CV risk
- Participants
- 74,897 individuals
- Exposure
- HF polygenic risk score (PRS) intermediate or high vs low genetic risk
- Outcome
- Hospitalization for HF (new-onset HF)
- Follow-up
- Median 2.5 years
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
New-onset HF (elevated CV risk)
Each group vs lowAdjusted hazard ratio (95% CI)P value
Intermediate
2.01(1.62–2.49)
P < 0.001High
5.00(3.99–6.27)
P < 0.001Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Discrimination: AUC of clinical model vs clinical model + HF PRS
- AUC clinical model
- 0.787 [95% CI: 0.775-0.798]
- AUC clinical model + HF PRS
- 0.822 [95% CI: 0.811-0.832]
Low CV risk data set · 20-year follow-up
- Results consistent in individuals at low CV risk
- 23,270
Original publication
A Polygenic Risk Score to Predict Incident Heart Failure Across the Spectrum of Cardiovascular Risk. J Am Coll Cardiol. Published 27 August 2025. doi:10.1016/j.jacc.2025.06.050
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it