Prevention & lipids

Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Estimates Using the Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events Equations

JAMA Intern MedPublished Cross-sectional study

Authors' conclusion

This cross-sectional study found that use of the PREVENT equations was associated with fewer US adults being eligible for primary prevention statin therapy; however, the majority of adults eligible for receiving such therapy based on PREVENT equations did not report statin use.

Study context

Population
US adults aged 40 to 75 years without known atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), NHANES 2017 to March 2020weighted sample
Participants
3,785 adults
Exposure
PREVENT equations vs pooled cohort equations (PCEs)
Outcome
10-year ASCVD risk and eligibility for primary prevention statin therapy
Methodological detailsnationally representative weighted sample
  • Nationally representative weighted sample

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

Mean estimated 10-year ASCVD risk; statin eligibility
GroupValueAdults meeting criteria for primary prevention statins
PCEsmean 8.0% (95% CI 7.6%–8.4%)45.4 million (95% CI, 40.3 million-50.4 million)
PREVENTmean 4.3% (95% CI 4.1%–4.5%)28.3 million (95% CI, 25.2 million-31.4 million)

Value

PCEsmean 8.0% (95% CI 7.6%–8.4%)
PREVENTmean 4.3% (95% CI 4.1%–4.5%)

Adults meeting criteria for primary prevention statins

PCEs45.4 million (95% CI, 40.3 million-50.4 million)
PREVENT28.3 million (95% CI, 25.2 million-31.4 million)
Adults recommended statins by PCEs no longer recommended by PREVENT
17.3 million (95% CI, 14.8 million-19.7 million)
Of these, currently taking statins
4.1 million (95% CI, 2.8 million-5.5 million)

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Further findings

Mean

OutcomePREVENTPCEs
Mean 10-year ASCVD risk, Black adults (subgroup)Lower with PREVENT across all age, sex and racial subgroups5.1% (95% CI 4.7%–5.4%)10.9% (95% CI 10.1%–11.7%)
Mean 10-year ASCVD risk, aged 70 to 75 years (subgroup)10.2% (95% CI 9.6%–10.8%)22.8% (95% CI 21.6%–24.1%)

Current statin use among adults eligible by PREVENT

Reported currently taking statins
44.1% (95% CI, 38.6%-49.5%)
Eligible but not taking statins
15.8 million (95% CI, 13.4 million-18.2 million)

Original publication

Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Estimates Using the Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events Equations. JAMA Intern Med. Published 1 August 2024. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2024.1302

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