Arrhythmias & electrophysiologyCohort study
Burden and age-specific trends of atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter from 1990 to 2023: a growing challenge among younger and middle-aged adults
- Global Burden of Disease analysis
- age-period-cohort analysis
- joinpoint regression
- Bayesian age-period-cohort projections
Authors' conclusion
Despite the concentrated burden in older adults, mortality- and disability-related burden is rising in younger and middle-aged populations, with significant variation across WBILs.
Study context
- Population
- Global population with AF/atrial flutter, by age and World Bank income level, 1990–2023
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
AF/AFL burden · 2023
Prevalent cases
58.99 million
Incident cases
5.02 million
Deaths
376 862
Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)
9.26 million
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Trends by World Bank income level · 1990–2023
- High-income: increases across all metrics
- Upper-middle-income: rising prevalence/incidence, decreasing mortality/DALY rates
- Lower-middle- and low-income: increases across all metrics
Attributable risk factors
- High SBP the leading attributable risk factor; larger contributions from high BMI, smoking and alcohol in younger and middle-aged adults
Projections · through 2048
- Modest declines in age-standardized prevalence, stable incidence, increasing mortality/DALY rates
Original publication
Burden and age-specific trends of atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter from 1990 to 2023: a growing challenge among younger and middle-aged adults. Europace. Published 3 March 2026. doi:10.1093/europace/euag036
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it