Heart failure & cardiomyopathiesCohort study

Cardiopulmonary exercise test criteria for heart transplantation referral of patients with ambulatory heart failure in the current era

HeartPublished

  • retrospective analysis

Authors' conclusion

In contemporary practice, a peak VO 2 <12 mL/kg/min alone may not reliably identify patients with HF with sufficiently high short-term mortality to warrant heart transplantation referral. VE/VCO 2 and exercise oscillatory ventilation provide important additional risk stratification, supporting re-evaluation of transplant referral criteria to reflect improved HF management and outcomes.

Study context

Population
Patients with ambulatory heart failure with cardiopulmonary exercise testing data; primary analysis in those with left ventricular ejection fraction <40% and peak VO 2 <12 mL/kg/min, enrolled between 2010 and 2022primary analysis: 1218 patients with left ventricular ejection fraction <40% and peak VO 2 <12 mL/kg/min
Participants
8,060 patients
Exposure
Survival outcomes (composite of death/left ventricular assist device/heart transplantation) were compared with those of heart transplantation recipients from the International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation registry
  • Patients with peak VO 2 <12 mL/kg/minn = 1,218

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

Survival (composite of death/left ventricular assist device/heart transplantation)
  • Patients with peak VO 2 <12 mL/kg/min demonstrated better survival than heart transplantation recipients, with survival curves intersecting at approximately 2.7 years

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Further findings

Mortality risk among those with VE/VCO 2 ≤34 · 10-year

10-year mortality risk was halved; survival curves crossing those of heart transplantation recipients around year 4
P < 0.01

Long-term mortality, absence of exercise oscillatory ventilation

lower long-term mortality
50%

10-year outcomes, four risk groups combining VE/VCO 2 and exercise oscillatory ventilation

four distinct risk groups with significantly different 10-year outcomes
P < 0.01

Survival, peak VO 2 <12 mL/kg/min, VE/VCO 2 ≤34 and no exercise oscillatory ventilation · year 5

survival comparable to heart transplantation recipients at year 5

Original publication

Cardiopulmonary exercise test criteria for heart transplantation referral of patients with ambulatory heart failure in the current era. Heart. Published 11 February 2026. doi:10.1136/heartjnl-2025-327208

Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it