Prevention & lipidsCohort study
Central Adiposity and Inflammation Mediate the Association Between Ultraprocessed Food Intake and Cardiovascular Disease Risk
- population-based, prospective cohort study
- mediation analyses using generalized structural equation modeling and counterfactual-based causal mediation analysis
Authors' conclusion
The association between UPF consumption and CVD risk appears to be partially mediated through central adiposity and systemic inflammation. These findings provide mechanistic insight into how UPFs may contribute to CVD risk and support dietary strategies that limit UPFs to reduce cardiometabolic risk.
Study context
- Population
- Men and women aged 45 to 84 years free of clinically apparent cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline (MESA)
- Participants
- 6,531 men
- Exposure
- Mediation of the association between UPF intake and incident CVD by body composition, systemic inflammation and metabolic biomarkers
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Cardiometabolic profiles by UPF intake
- higher UPF intake was associated with adverse cardiometabolic profiles
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Single-mediator generalized structural equation models: mediation of UPF intake–incident CVD association
- waist-to-height ratio β
- 0.012; CI: 0.007-0.017
- interleukin (interleukin (IL))-6 β
- 0.003; CI: 0.001-0.006
- waist-to-height ratio proportion of total association mediated
- 44%
- IL-6 proportion of total association mediated
- 13%
Parallel mediation models (waist-to-height ratio and IL-6 simultaneously)
- adiposity proportion mediated
- 38%
- IL-6 proportion mediated
- 9%
- both mediators retained independent indirect effects
Counterfactual mediation analyses
- Results were consistent in magnitude and direction across counterfactual mediation analyses
Original publication
Central Adiposity and Inflammation Mediate the Association Between Ultraprocessed Food Intake and Cardiovascular Disease Risk. JACC Adv. Published 18 September 2026. doi:10.1016/j.jacadv.2026.103247
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it