Prevention & lipidsCohort study
Changes in depressive symptoms as predictors of incident cardiovascular disease: insights from four prospective cohorts
- Prospective cohort study
- multinational
- four harmonized longitudinal cohorts (CHARLS, ELSA, HRS, MHAS)
Authors' conclusion
This multinational cohort study demonstrates that worsening or progression of depressive symptoms increases CVD risk, while remission or improvement confers protective effects
Study context
- Population
- Aging populations in China (CHARLS), UK (ELSA), US (HRS) and Mexico (MHAS)4 cohorts
- Exposure
- Changes in depressive symptoms between baseline and follow-up
- Outcome
- Incident CVD (heart attack, angina, congestive HF, other physician-diagnosed heart conditions, stroke)
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Incident CVD by change in depressive symptoms
- No depression → mild depression
- increase in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk 28% (95% CI 1.14–1.44)
- No depression → moderate-to-severe depression
- increase in CVD risk 23% (95% CI 1.04–1.46)
- Mild depression → no depression
- reduction in CVD risk 19% (95% CI 0.68–0.98)
- Moderate-to-severe → mild depression
- reduction in CVD risk 25% (95% CI 0.61–0.93)
- Moderate-to-severe → no depression
- reduction in CVD risk 38% (95% CI 0.50–0.76)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | increase in CVD risk (95% CI) |
|---|---|
| Incident CVD per 1-unit increase in depression score — Total depression score, per 1-unit increase | 12% (1.10–1.14) |
| Incident CVD per 1-unit increase in depression score — Depression score change, per 1-unit increase | 15% (1.11–1.19) |
Incident CVD by age (subgroup)
- Effects stronger in participants aged <65 years than ≥65 years
Original publication
Changes in depressive symptoms as predictors of incident cardiovascular disease: insights from four prospective cohorts. Eur J Prev Cardiol. Published 19 September 2025. doi:10.1093/eurjpc/zwaf586
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it