Comparison of different long-term cardiovascular disease risk prediction horizons to guide preventive drug treatment in apparently healthy individuals
Authors' conclusion
Long-term CVD risk estimation until age 80 years offers a pragmatic approach to identify younger high-risk individuals not captured by 10-year risk who may benefit from preventive treatment.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals aged 35–69 years without cardiovascular disease (CVD) or diabetes from the Dutch ELAN registry (2007–2024) and the EPIC-InterAct subcohort (1992–1998)Dutch ELAN registry (2007-2024) 364,003 · EPIC-InterAct subcohort (1992-1998) 8,813
- Comparison
- Individuals in the top risk decile were compared across time horizons
- Outcome
- Overlap of top risk decile with 10-year risk
Methodological detailssimulation of blood pressure- and lipid-lowering therapy
- Simulation of blood pressure- and lipid-lowering therapy
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Further findings
| Outcome | Risk until age 80 years | Risk until age 95 years | 30-year risk | Hybrid strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVD-free life years gained per person treated and lifetime CVD events preventedEvents = CVD events prevented | median gain 2.6 (IQR 2.2–2.9) CVD-free life years | median gain 2.6 (IQR 2.2–2.9) CVD-free life years | median gain 1.8 (IQR 1.4–1.9) years | median gain 2.5 (IQR 2.1–3.0) CVD-free life years |
Original publication
Comparison of different long-term cardiovascular disease risk prediction horizons to guide preventive drug treatment in apparently healthy individuals. Eur Heart J Qual Care Clin Outcomes. Published 1 June 2026. doi:10.
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