Coronary disease & ACSDiagnostic or prognostic study
Derivation and validation of a prediction model for long-term mortality in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: the PREDICT-ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction score
- Derivation and validation of a prediction model
- time-to-event regression analysis
- outcome-based cut-point optimisation analysis
Authors' conclusion
The PREDICT-STEMI score is a simple tool for predicting long-term mortality and facilitating early risk stratification and inform clinical decision-making.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI)derivation cohort from a STEMI network, validation in EXAMINATION-EXTEND study (n=1498) and Coronary Artery diSease Tracking registry (n=1112) · Derivation cohort (STEMI network) 23,086 · EXAMINATION-EXTEND study (validation) 1,498 · Coronary Artery diSease Tracking registry (validation) 1,112
- Participants
- 23,086 patients
- Comparison
- PREDICT-STEMI score for predicting long-term mortality, derived and validated across cohorts
- Derivation cohortn = 23,086
- EXAMINATION-EXTEND studyn = 1,498
- Coronary Artery diSease Tracking registryn = 1,112
Performance
As reported in the abstract
PREDICT-STEMI score composition
- Seven variables: age, diabetes mellitus, previous myocardial infarction, previous ischaemic stroke/transient ischaemic attack, haemodynamic status, three-vessel disease and mechanical circulatory support; score ranging from 0 to 206 points
Further findings
Concordance index
| Outcome | Derivation cohort | EXAMINATION-EXTEND study | Coronary Artery diSease Tracking registry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Concordance index for long-term mortality · validation cohorts reported "respectively" | 0.81 (95% CI 0.80–0.81) | 0.81 (95% CI 0.78–0.84) | 0.84 (95% CI 0.81–0.87) |
Long-term mortality by score cut-off
- Optimal prediction model cut-off
- 60 points
- High vs low score: sixfold increased risk of long-term mortality in both the derivation and validation cohorts
Original publication
Derivation and validation of a prediction model for long-term mortality in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: the PREDICT-ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction score. Heart. Published 29 April 2026. doi:10.1136/heartjnl-2026-327811
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it