Coronary disease & ACSDiagnostic or prognostic study
Determining cardiovascular risk in patients with unattributed chest pain in UK primary care: an electronic health record study
- Prognostic model development and validation study
- electronic health records
- external validation
Authors' conclusion
Patients presenting with unattributed chest pain are at increased risk of cardiovascular events. It is feasible to accurately estimate individual risk using routinely recorded information in the primary care record, focusing on a small number of risk factors.
Study context
- Population
- Adults aged 18 plus with recorded unattributed chest pain in UK primary care (Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to hospitalizations), 2002–2018development data set
- Participants
- 374,917 adults
- Comparison
- New CV risk prediction model vs QRISK3
- Outcome
- CV events (CVD risk prediction)
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Predictive performance (external validation)
| Test or model | c-statistic | calibration slope |
|---|---|---|
| Developed model | 0.81 | 1.02 |
Further findings
Risk factors for CVD
- Strongest risk factors: DM, AF, hypertension
- Risk increased in males, Asian ethnicity, more deprived areas, obese patients, smokers
Original publication
Determining cardiovascular risk in patients with unattributed chest pain in UK primary care: an electronic health record study. Eur J Prev Cardiol. Published 10 March 2023. doi:10.1093/eurjpc/zwad055
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it