Development and external validation of a prognostic model for new-onset atrial fibrillation complicating acute myocardial infarction: insights from the NOAFCAMI-China registry
Authors' conclusion
The NOAFCAMI score is the first externally validated prediction model to personalize MACE risk assessment in patients with post-MI NOAF, offering actionable insights for tailored management.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with new-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) complicating acute myocardial infarction (AMI), January 2014 to January 2022derivation and external validation cohorts · Derivation cohort 457 · External validation cohort 206
- Predictors
- NOAFCAMI score: age, prior HF, Killip class, undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention, peak level of NT-pro BNP, AF burden, and symptomatic AF
- Predicted outcome
- major adverse cardiac events (MACEs)
Methodological detailsregistry (NOAFCAMI-China), stepwise multivariable Cox regression, optimism bootstrap-corrected internal validation
- Registry (NOAFCAMI-China)
- Stepwise multivariable Cox regression
- Optimism bootstrap-corrected internal validation
Model performance
As reported in the abstract
AUC or C-index
5-year (derivation)
AUC 0.83(95% CI: 0.77 to 0.88)
Internal validation, optimism bootstrap-corrected C-index
C-index 0.72(95% CI: 0.68 to 0.76)
5-yearExternal validation, 5-year AUC · 5-year
AUC 0.79(95% CI: 0.69 to 0.89)
Further findings
Brier score
Derivation cohort
0.17(95% CI: 0.15 to 0.19)
External validation cohort
0.19(95% CI: 0.16 to 0.22)
- Calibration acceptable in both cohorts
Original publication
Development and external validation of a prognostic model for new-onset atrial fibrillation complicating acute myocardial infarction: insights from the NOAFCAMI-China registry. Eur Heart J Acute Cardiovasc Care. Published 17 September 2025. doi:10.
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