Cardiometabolic & kidneyDiagnostic or prognostic study
Development and external validation of the SCORE2 models in Latin America and the Caribbean (SCORE2-LAC) to estimate 10-year cardiovascular disease risk
- Risk prediction model development and external validation study
- sex-specific
- competing risk-adjusted
- recalibration to four risk regions
Derivation from 40 237 152 individuals (1 261 329 cardiovascular disease (CVD) events)
Authors' conclusion
The SCORE2-LAC models provide region-specific contemporary estimates of 10-year CVD risk in apparently healthy individuals, enabling identification of individuals at high CVD risk across LAC.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals without prior CVD or diabetes mellitus in Latin America and the Caribbean
- Participants
- 132,512 individuals · 11 cohorts · 7 countries
- Outcome
- Discrimination of SCORE2-LAC for 10-year CVD risk (Harrell's C-index) in external validation
- Follow-up
- 10 years
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Pooled C-index in external validation
Pooled C-index of SCORE2-LAC (95% CI .716-.763)
.740
Cohort-specific C-index, lowest (95% CI .588-.761)
.674
Cohort-specific C-index, highest (95% CI .747-.831)
.789
Further findings
Predicted 10-year CVD risk, 50-year-old non-smoker (SBP 140 mmHg, total cholesterol 213 mg/dL, HDL-C 50 mg/dL), across risk regions
- Women: low-risk to very-high-risk countries
- 3% to 10%
- Men: low-risk to very-high-risk countries
- 4% to 10%
- Estimated CVD risk varied several-fold across the four LAC risk regions
Original publication
Development and external validation of the SCORE2 models in Latin America and the Caribbean (SCORE2-LAC) to estimate 10-year cardiovascular disease risk. Eur Heart J. Published 29 August 2026. doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehag698
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it