Development and validation of a lifetime prediction model for incident type 2 diabetes in patients with established cardiovascular disease: the CVD2DM model
Authors' conclusion
The 10-year and lifetime risks of T2D can be estimated with the CVD2DM model in patients with established CVD, using readily available clinical predictors.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD) without diabetes at baseline (derivation UK Biobank; external validation UCC-SMART)3,481 in external validation
- Participants
- 19,281 patients
- Comparison
- Core model vs extended model
- Outcome
- 10-year and lifetime risk of T2DM
Methodological detailssex-specific, competing risk-adjusted Cox models
- Sex-specific
- Competing risk-adjusted Cox models
Performance
As reported in the abstract
External validation discrimination (c-statistic)
| Test or model | C-statistic |
|---|---|
| Core model | 0.79 (95% CI 0.76-0.82) |
| Extended model | 0.81 (95% CI 0.78-0.84) |
C-statistic
Core model0.79 (95% CI 0.76-0.82)
Extended model0.81 (95% CI 0.78-0.84)
Further findings
Incident T2DM in UK Biobank derivation cohort · median follow-up 12.2 years (IQR 11.3-13.1)
- Participants diagnosed with T2DM
- 1628
Original publication
Development and validation of a lifetime prediction model for incident type 2 diabetes in patients with established cardiovascular disease: the CVD2DM model. Eur J Prev Cardiol. Published 8 April 2024. doi:10.
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it