Prevention & lipidsDiagnostic or prognostic study
Development and validation of a new algorithm for improved cardiovascular risk prediction
- Risk prediction model development and external validation study
- cause-specific Cox models
- sex-specific models
Authors' conclusion
The QR4 risk score identifies new risk groups and provides superior CVD risk prediction in the United Kingdom compared with other international scoring systems for CVD risk.
Study context
- Population
- UK adults; derivation 9.98 million, validation 6.79 million9.98 million derivation
- Comparison
- QR4 vs QRISK3, SCORE2 and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk scores
- Outcome
- Prediction of 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk (C statistic on external validation)
- Follow-up
- 10 years
Performance
As reported in the abstract
C statistic on external validation
| Test or model | C statistic, women | C statistic, men |
|---|---|---|
| QR4 | 0.835 (95% CI, 0.833-0.837) | 0.814 (95% CI, 0.812-0.816) |
| QRISK3 | 0.831 (95% CI, 0.829-0.832) | 0.812 (95% CI, 0.810-0.814) |
Further findings
Novel risk factors identified
- Both sexes: brain cancer, lung cancer, Down syndrome, blood cancer, COPD, oral cancer, learning disability
- 7
- Women only: pre-eclampsia, postnatal depression
- 2
Original publication
Development and validation of a new algorithm for improved cardiovascular risk prediction. Nat Med. Published 18 April 2024. doi:10.1038/s41591-024-02905-y
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it