Prevention & lipidsDiagnostic or prognostic study
Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Cardiovascular Risk in Reproductive-Aged Women
- Development and validation of a prediction model
- internal validation via bootstrapping
- least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method
- accelerated failure time Weibull model
Authors' conclusion
Although the model showed modest predictive accuracy and performance, the findings highlight the importance of sex-specific risk factors for identifying women at high risk of CVD in the postpartum period.
Study context
- Population
- Women aged 15 to 45 years with 1 randomly selected delivery from 1999 to 2017 in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink database, for screening within the first-year postpartumwomen in the cohort
- Participants
- 262,891 women
- Comparison
- Prognostic model including female-specific risk factors for incident cardiovascular disease (CVD); optimism-corrected performance by internal validation
- Outcome
- Incident CVD
- Follow-up
- Median 3.8 years (Q1-Q3 1.5-7.9)
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Women experiencing a cardiovascular event
943
Rate
0.81 per 1,000 person-years
Further findings
Predictors in the final model
- Traditional CVD risk factors, along with social deprivation, polycystic ovary syndrome, prior use of oral contraceptives, depression, thyroid disorders, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, gestational diabetes, preterm birth, small-for-gestational-age birthweight, parity, and history of pregnancy complications
Optimism-corrected model performance, median (Q1-Q3)
- C-statistic (modest discrimination)
- 0.637 [0.623-0.650]
- Calibration slope (good calibration)
- 0.919 [0.905-0.930]
- internal validation via bootstrapping
Original publication
Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Cardiovascular Risk in Reproductive-Aged Women. JACC Adv. doi:10.1016/j.jacadv.2026.102760
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it