Arrhythmias & electrophysiology
Development and validation of the GLORIA-AF Stroke Weighted Risk Score for patients with atrial fibrillation
Authors' conclusion
The GLORIA-AF Stroke Weighted Risk Score provides risk refinement beyond CHA2DS2-VA while retaining discrimination consistent with more complex models. External validation supports its transportability and potential adjunctive role in guideline-directed thromboembolic risk assessment.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) in GLORIA-AF Phase II/IIIderivation cohort, external validation 8309 patients · Derivation cohort (GLORIA-AF Phase II/III) 20,517 · External validation (EORP-AF and APHRS-AF) 8,309
- Participants
- 20,517 patientsEvents: 487 (2.4%)
- Predictors
- Ten selected predictors formed a 0-23-point score (GLORIA-AF Stroke Weighted Risk Score), from 17 baseline predictors
- Predicted outcome
- stroke
Methodological detailstime-to-event framework, LASSO-penalized Cox regression with stability selection, external validation in EORP-AF and APHRS-AF registries
- Time-to-event framework
- LASSO-penalized Cox regression with stability selection
- External validation in EORP-AF and APHRS-AF registries
Model performance
As reported in the abstract
C-index
Derived score (derivation cohort)
0.661(95% CI, 0.636-0.685)
CHA2DS2-VA (derivation cohort)
0.626
CHA2DS2-VASc (derivation cohort)
0.615
Derived scoreexternal validation; 147 strokes
0.652(95% CI, 0.614-0.690)
CHA2DS2-VAexternal validation; 147 strokes
0.616 (95% CI, 0.598-0.634
- Derived score vs CHA2DS2-VA P < 0.001
- Derived score vs CHA2DS2-VASc P < 0.001
- Derived score vs unweighted score P = 0.016
- No significant difference from the full Cox or machine learning models
Further findings
Stroke (external validation; 147 strokes)
- P < 0.001
Integrated discrimination improvement (IDI)/net reclassification improvement (NRI), calibration and decision curve analyses
- Supported improved risk differentiation, close calibration, and generally greater net benefit than CHA2DS2-VA
Discrimination among patients without baseline anticoagulation
- Score retained higher discrimination than CHA2DS2-VA
- P < 0.001
Derivation cohort characteristics
- Age, mean (SD)
- 69.9 (10.3) years
- Women
- 9196 (44.8%)
- Receiving anticoagulation at baseline
- 17 397 (84.8%)
Original publication
Development and validation of the GLORIA-AF Stroke Weighted Risk Score for patients with atrial fibrillation. Europace. Published 29 August 2026. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →