Cardiometabolic & kidneyResearch article
Estimating the health impact of menu calorie labelling policy and sugar-sweetened beverage taxation in two European countries: a microsimulation study
- Microsimulation study
- 20-year simulation horizon (2022-2041)
Authors' conclusion
Menu calorie labelling and SSB taxation have substantial impacts on reducing obesity prevalence and preventing CVD deaths in Belgium and Germany.
Study context
- Population
- Populations of Belgium and Germany
- Comparison
- Menu calorie labelling vs sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxation vs counterfactual scenario
- Outcome
- Obesity prevalence, CVD mortality and equity-related impacts
- Follow-up
- 20 years (2022-2041)
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Reduction in obesity prevalence and CVD deaths vs counterfactual (consumer and industry effects) · 20 years
| Group | Obesity prevalence reduction, Belgium | Obesity prevalence reduction, Germany | Cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths prevented, Belgium | CVD deaths prevented, Germany | CVD deaths postponed, Belgium | CVD deaths postponed, Germany |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Menu calorie labelling | 3.61 percentage points (95% UI 2.78, 4.30) | 4.28 percentage points (95% UI 3.64, 5.06) | 1600 (95% UI 400, 3800) | 30 000 (95% UI 10 000, 58 000) | ||
| SSB tax | 0.27 percentage points (95% UI 0.17, 0.43) | 0.27 percentage points (95% UI 0.17, 0.39) | 2500 (95% UI 800, 5200) | 16 000 (95% UI 7500, 28 000) |
Further findings
Equity: CVD deaths by education group
- SSB taxation had a larger impact on CVD deaths for lower (vs higher) education groups
- Menu calorie labelling prevented more CVD deaths for higher (vs lower) education groups
Original publication
Estimating the health impact of menu calorie labelling policy and sugar-sweetened beverage taxation in two European countries: a microsimulation study. Eur J Prev Cardiol. Published 13 June 2025. doi:10.1093/eurjpc/zwaf333
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it