Arrhythmias & electrophysiologyResearch article
Estimation of atrial fibrillation burden as a function of monitoring time without atrial fibrillation
- Modeling study of continuous ECG monitoring data
- Confidence intervals (CIs) bootstrapped with 10,000 replications
Authors' conclusion
Monitoring time without AF can be used to predict 14-day AF burden and rule out AF burdens above certain thresholds. In this unselected patient sample, 3 days of monitoring without AF episodes ≥30 seconds exclude AF burdens ≥0.1% in 97% of patients.
Study context
- Population
- US patients without permanent/persistent atrial fibrillation (AF), monitored for ≥14 days in 2021 with the PocketECG device (MEDICALgorithmics)median age 62 years [interquartile range 46–73], 40.6% male
- Participants
- 11,639 patients
- Comparison
- Overall 14-day AF burden modeled as a function of monitoring duration without AF episodes lasting ≥30 seconds to <6 minutes, ≥6 minutes to 1 hour, and ≥1 hour
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Patients with AF detected
1186 patients (10.4%)
Median AF burden among those with AF
2.6% (interquartile range 0.00-0.13)
Of those with AF, ≥1 episode ≥6 minutes
985
Of those with AF, ≥1 episode ≥1 hour
769
Further findings
AF burden vs monitoring time without AF
- AF burden decreased rapidly with increasing monitoring time without AF
95th percentile of AF burden · After 3 days
- Without any ≥30-second episodes
- 0.00% (95% CI 0.00%-0.00%)
- Without any ≥6-minute episodes
- 0.008% (95% CI 0.00%-0.02%)
- Without any ≥1-hour episodes
- 0.08% (95% CI 0.03%-0.18%)
Probability of an AF burden ≥0.1% · after 3 days without ≥30 seconds AF
- Probability
- 3.1% (95% CI 2.7%-3.4%)
Original publication
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it