Heart failure & cardiomyopathiesDiagnostic or prognostic study
Evaluating the temporal and sociodemographic generalizability of the emergency heart failure mortality risk grade
- temporal validation cohort
- 10 emergency departments
- linked to national databases
Authors' conclusion
EHMRG models retained good model discrimination. Risk was mildly overestimated at 30-days for higher-risk patients, which would lead to conservative recommendations tending towards hospital admission. EHMRG models were robust over most socio-demographic characteristics.
Study context
- Population
- Patients presenting to emergency departments with an acute heart failure (AHF) diagnosis between 2017 and 2019 in Ontariopatients presenting to 10 emergency departments
- Participants
- 7,537 patients
- Comparison
- EHMRG performance assessed using discrimination metrics and calibration plots, and compared across several socio-demographic subgroups
Further findings
EHMRG-7P discrimination and calibration · 7-day
- c-statistic
- 0.794 [95% CI, 0.764-0.824]
- good calibration, with minor overestimation of risk in the highest decile
EHMRG30-ST discrimination and calibration · 30-day
- c-statistic
- 0.777 [0.759-0.796]
- mildly overestimated risk in the five upper deciles
Discrimination across socio-demographic subgroups
- robust across subgroups of sex, income quintiles, marital status, and the ON-Marg indices
- c-statistic slightly lower for patients living in long-term-care homes
Original publication
Evaluating the temporal and sociodemographic generalizability of the emergency heart failure mortality risk grade. ESC Heart Fail. Published 29 May 2026. doi:10.1093/eschf/xvag156
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it