Arrhythmias & electrophysiology
External validation of atrial fibrillation risk prediction tools in a racially diverse cohort of patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy
Authors' conclusion
The HCM-AF score demonstrated good AF risk discrimination in a diverse cohort of patients with HCM, outperforming alternative non-HCM-specific AF risk scores and validating its use in nonwhite HCM populations.
Study context
- Population
- Racially diverse patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) without previous atrial fibrillation (AF), Johns Hopkins HCM Center
- Participants
- 631 patients
- Exposure
- HCM-AF score vs non-HCM-specific AF risk scores
- Outcome
- Discrimination (c-statistic) for new-onset, clinically significant AF
- Follow-up
- Median 3.1 years
Methodological detailsexternal validation, single-centre
- External validation
- Single-centre
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Discrimination for new AF (c-statistic)
| Group | C-statistic | C-statistics |
|---|---|---|
| HCM-AF | 0.72 | Not reported in the abstract |
| Non-HCM-specific scores | Not reported in the abstract | 0.56-0.67 |
C-statistic
HCM-AF0.72
Non-HCM-specific scoresNot reported in the abstract
C-statistics
HCM-AFNot reported in the abstract
Non-HCM-specific scores0.56-0.67
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | Values |
|---|---|
| AF rate by HCM-AF risk category | Low risk 0.9% AF/year · Medium risk 3.4% AF/year · High risk 7.4% AF/year |
| HCM-AF score discrimination by race (subgroup) | White c-statistic 0.71 · Nonwhite c-statistic 0.74 |
New AF incidence · median follow-up 3.1 years
- New AF diagnosed
- 18.9%
HCM-AF score discrimination by race (subgroup)
- Discrimination similar for white and nonwhite patients
Original publication
External validation of atrial fibrillation risk prediction tools in a racially diverse cohort of patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Heart Rhythm. Published 23 May 2025. doi:10.
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it