Forecasting the Burden of Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke in the United States Through 2050—Prevalence of Risk Factors and Disease: A Presidential Advisory From the American Heart Association
Authors' conclusion
The prevalence of many cardiovascular risk factors and most established diseases will increase over the next 30 years.
Study context
- Population
- US adults (and children), by age and race and ethnicity
- Outcome
- Prevalence of CV risk factors (adverse Life's Essential 8 levels) and clinical CVD and stroke
- Follow-up
- 2020 to 2050
Methodological detailsAHA presidential advisory, projection through 2050, NHANES 2015 to March 2020 and MEPS 2015 to 2019 data
- AHA presidential advisory
- Projection through 2050
- NHANES 2015 to March 2020 and MEPS 2015 to 2019 data
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Projected prevalence among adults, 2020 to 2050 · 2050
- Hypertension
- 51.2% to 61.0%
- Diabetes
- 16.3% to 26.8%
- Obesity
- 43.1% to 60.6%
- Hypercholesterolemia (decline)
- 45.8% to 24.0%
- Coronary disease
- 7.8% to 9.2%
- HF
- 2.7% to 3.8%
- Stroke
- 3.9% to 6.4%
- AF
- 1.7% to 2.4%
- Total CVD
- 11.3% to 15.0%
- Adults with clinical CVD by 2050
- 45 million
- Adults with CVD incl. hypertension by 2050
- more than 184 million (>61%)
Further findings
Children
- Similar trends projected in children
By race and ethnicity
- Most adverse trends worse among American Indian/Alaska Native or multiracial, Black, or Hispanic people
Original publication
Forecasting the Burden of Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke in the United States Through 2050—Prevalence of Risk Factors and Disease: A Presidential Advisory From the American Heart Association. Circulation. Published 4 June 2024. doi:10.
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it