Prevention & lipidsResearch article
Forecasting the Burden of Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke in the United States Through 2050—Prevalence of Risk Factors and Disease: A Presidential Advisory From the American Heart Association
- Modelling (forecasting) study
- AHA presidential advisory
- projection through 2050
- NHANES 2015 to March 2020 and MEPS 2015 to 2019 data
Authors' conclusion
The prevalence of many cardiovascular risk factors and most established diseases will increase over the next 30 years.
Study context
- Population
- US adults (and children), by age and race and ethnicity
- Outcome
- Prevalence of CV risk factors (adverse Life's Essential 8 levels) and clinical CVD and stroke
- Follow-up
- 2020 to 2050
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Projected prevalence among adults, 2020 to 2050 · 2050
- Hypertension
- 51.2% to 61.0%
- Diabetes
- 16.3% to 26.8%
- Obesity
- 43.1% to 60.6%
- Hypercholesterolemia (decline)
- 45.8% to 24.0%
- Coronary disease
- 7.8% to 9.2%
- HF
- 2.7% to 3.8%
- Stroke
- 3.9% to 6.4%
- AF
- 1.7% to 2.4%
- Total CVD
- 11.3% to 15.0%
- Adults with clinical CVD by 2050
- 45 million
- Adults with CVD incl. hypertension by 2050
- more than 184 million (>61%)
Further findings
Children
- Similar trends projected in children
By race and ethnicity
- Most adverse trends worse among American Indian/Alaska Native or multiracial, Black, or Hispanic people
Original publication
Forecasting the Burden of Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke in the United States Through 2050—Prevalence of Risk Factors and Disease: A Presidential Advisory From the American Heart Association. Circulation. Published 4 June 2024. doi:10.1161/cir.0000000000001256
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it