Arrhythmias & electrophysiology
Genetic Risk Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation
Authors' conclusion
Comprehensive AF genetic risk scores were associated with incident AF beyond associations for clinical AF risk factors but offered small improvements in discrimination. AF genetic risk was also associated with cardioembolic stroke in age- and sex-adjusted analyses.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals of European ancestry; scores based on 11 to 719 common variants associated with atrial fibrillation (AF)
- Participants
- 18,919 individuals · 5 prospective studies
- Exposure
- Highest vs lowest quartile of AF genetic risk score
- Outcome
- Incident AF
Methodological detailsseparate case-referent stroke study, European ancestry
- Separate case-referent stroke study
- European ancestry
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Incident AF (adjusted for clinical risk factors)
Highest quartile vs Lowest quartilePooled hazard ratio (95% CI)P value
719 variants (lowest HR across scores)
1.28(1.13–1.46)
P = 1.5×10-425 variants (highest HR across scores)
1.67(1.47–1.90)
P = 9.3×10-15- Incident AF
- 1032 individuals (5.5%)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | OR (95% CI) | P value | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardioembolic stroke, 127-variant score (509 ischemic stroke cases, 202 cardioembolic, 3028 referents)Highest quartile vs Lowest quartile · age- and sex-adjusted | 2.49 (1.39–4.58) | P = 2.7×10-3 | |
| Cardioembolic stroke, 127-variant score (509 ischemic stroke cases, 202 cardioembolic, 3028 referents)Highest quartile vs Lowest quartile · after excluding individuals with known AF (n=70) | 2.25 (1.20–4.40) | P = 0.01 | |
| 0.20.5125Odds ratio (log scale) |
Discrimination of combined clinical and genetic risk scores
- Maximum C statistic
- 0.629-0.811
- Maximum ΔC statistic from clinical score alone
- 0.009-0.017
- Varied across studies and scores
Original publication
Genetic Risk Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation. Circulation. Published 28 October 2016. doi:10.
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it