Research article
Global and Regional Cardiovascular Mortality Attributable to Nonoptimal Temperatures Over Time
- Multi-country time-series study with meta-regression (global burden assessment)
- 3-stage analysis
- 32 countries
- global grid 55 km × 55 km
- 2000–2019
Authors' conclusion
Nonoptimal temperatures substantially contribute to cardiovascular mortality, with heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns.
Study context
- Population
- Daily CV deaths and temperature data from 32 countries, extrapolated globally32 countries
- Outcome
- Global CV mortality burden attributable to nonoptimal temperatures
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Annual CV deaths attributable to nonoptimal temperatures
- Annual CV deaths associated with nonoptimal temperatures
- 1,801,513 (95% empirical CI 1,526,632-2,202,831)
- Share of total CV mortality
- 8.86% (95% empirical CI 7.51%-12.32%)
- Deaths per 100,000 population
- 26
- Cold-related share
- 8.20% (95% empirical CI 6.74%-11.57%)
- Heat-related share
- 0.66% (95% empirical CI 0.49%-0.98%)
Further findings
Regional variation
- Highest excess mortality rates in Central Asia and Eastern Europe
Temporal trends · 2000 to 2019
- Cold-related excess death ratios decreased, heat-related increased; overall decline in temperature-related deaths
- Greatest reduction in Southeastern Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania; increase in Southern Asia
- Fluctuating patterns in the Americas and several regions in Asia and Europe
Original publication
Global and Regional Cardiovascular Mortality Attributable to Nonoptimal Temperatures Over Time. J Am Coll Cardiol. Published 11 June 2024. doi:10.1016/j.jacc.2024.03.425
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it