Heart failure & cardiomyopathies
Global burden of heart failure due to cardiovascular diseases, 1990–2021 and predictions to 2035 based on Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021
- Global Burden of Disease (GBD) analysis
- age-period-cohort modelling
- Joinpoint regression analysis
- Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model projections to 2035
+3 more
- age-period-cohort modelling
- Joinpoint regression analysis
- Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model projections to 2035
Authors' conclusion
The rising absolute number of HF patients indicates a substantial CVD-attributable burden by 2035, necessitating enhanced focus on individuals over 60, particularly those with IHD and HHD.
Study context
- Population
- Global population with heart failure (HF) attributable to cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), GBD 2021 data, 1990–2021
- Exposure
- HF due to ischaemic heart disease (IHD) vs HF due to hypertensive heart disease (HHD)
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Age, period and cohort effects on HF risk
- Increased risk of developing HF started at age 60 and after the period 2005-2009
- Birth cohorts showed protective factors after 1955-1959
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of HF resulting from IHD · since 2019
- Annual percentage changes (APC) (gradual decrease)
- −0.74, 95% UI: −0.94 to −0.55, P < .001
HHD trend · after 2019
- APC in females (decreasing)
- −0.47, 95% UI: −0.74 to −0.20, P < .01
- Continuous upward trend in male patients, while decreasing in females after 2019 (APC = −0.47, 95% UI: −0.74 to −0.20, P < .01)
CVDs-attributable HF cases and years lived with disability (YLDs) · 1990 to 2021
- HF cases, 1990
- 20.1 million (95% UI: 17.3-23.4)
- YLDs, 1990
- 1.92 million (95% UI: 1.28-2.66)
- HF cases, 2021
- 45.6 million (95% UI: 39.7-52.7)
- YLDs, 2021
- 4.32 million (95% UI: 2.96-5.94)
- Increase in cases
- 127%
- Increase in YLDs
- 126%
- Increase in ASPR
- 3.74%
- Increase in age-standardized YLD rates
- 3.36%
Projected global HF population · by 2035
- Males
- 27.0 million (95% UI: 21.6-32.5)
- Females
- 21.5 million (95% UI: 16.8-26.3)
- ASPR stable
Original publication
Global burden of heart failure due to cardiovascular diseases, 1990–2021 and predictions to 2035 based on GBD 2021. ESC Heart Fail. Published 23 January 2026. doi:10.1093/eschf/xvag038
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it