Arrhythmias & electrophysiologyCohort study
Global, regional, and national burden of atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter from 1990 to 2021: sex differences and global burden projections to 2046—a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- Systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- age-period-cohort analysis
- joinpoint regression
- Bayesian age-period-cohort projection to 2046
Authors' conclusion
The global burden of AF/AFL is rising, particularly among women, and in low-socio-demographic index regions.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals aged 30 and above, global, 1990–2021
- Exposure
- Males vs females
- Outcome
- Incidence, prevalence, mortality and DALYs of AF/AFL
- Follow-up
- 1990 to 2021
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Global burden of AF/AFL · 2021
People affected by AF/AFL globally in 2021
52.6 million
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Risk factors
- Key risk factors: high SBP, body mass index (BMI), alcohol use; females had higher age-standardized rates associated with elevated BMI than males
Projections · 2022 to 2046
- Stable age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) in males, rising rates in females; Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) expected to decline for both sexes
Original publication
Global, regional, and national burden of atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter from 1990 to 2021: sex differences and global burden projections to 2046—a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Europace. Published 14 February 2025. doi:10.1093/europace/euaf027
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it