Heart failure & cardiomyopathiesResearch article
Heart failure in China: a macroeconomic modelling study of intervention strategies
- Macroeconomic modelling study
- health-augmented macroeconomic model
- projection 2025-35
Authors' conclusion
HF imposes a substantial and increasing macroeconomic burden in China, largely through workforce productivity losses.
Study context
- Population
- China; data from GBD 2021, China Cardiovascular Association Registry and national insurance databases
- Comparison
- BNP screening, intensive blood pressure (BP) control and guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) optimization vs no intervention
- Outcome
- HF macroeconomic burden (2017 INT$)
- Follow-up
- 2025-35
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Cumulative HF economic burden and savings by intervention
Cumulative HF economic burden and savings by intervention · 2025-35 BNP screening saved INT$78.5 billion (95% UI 62.8-94.1 billion) · Intensive BP control saved INT$27.5 billion (95% UI 25.1-29.9 billion) · GDMT optimization saved INT$17.0 billion (95% UI 12.8-22.4 billion)
reduction
cost-benefit ratio BNP screening 0.49
ratio Intensive BP control 0.22 · GDMT optimization 0.48
- Cumulative economic burden 2025-35
- INT$1001.1 billion (95% UI: 733.4-1365.6 billion)
- Share of GDP
- 0.26% (95% UI: 0.19%-0.34%)
- Driven by labour force attrition
- 72.1% (95% UI: 64.4%-74.8%)
- Interventions reduced total burden
- 12.5% (95% UI: 10.4%-14.5%)
Further findings
Projected heart failure (HF) cases in China · By 2035
- HF cases
- 22.7 million (95% UI: 9.5-36.9 million)
- Age-standardized prevalence
- 760.65/100 000 (95% UI: 283.2-1340.8/100 000)
Original publication
Heart failure in China: a macroeconomic modelling study of intervention strategies. Eur Heart J. Published 8 December 2025. doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehaf992
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it