Research article
High temperature and cardiovascular disease in Australia under different climatic, demographic, and adaptive scenarios
- Burden of disease modelling study
- meta-regression
- climate projection (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)
Authors' conclusion
Higher temperatures are expected to exacerbate the burden of CVD.
Study context
- Population
- Australian population, cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden (DALYs) from the Australian Burden of Disease database, baseline 2003–18
- Outcome
- CVD burden (DALYs) attributable to high temperatures
- Follow-up
- Baseline 2003-18; projections for the 2030s and 2050s
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
CVD burden attributable to high temperatures · baseline 2003-18
Share of CVD burden attributable to high temperatures
7.3% (95% CI 7.0%-7.6%)
Attributable DALYs per 100 000 population
223.8 (95% CI 221.0-226.6)
Further findings
Projected CVD burden attributable to high temperatures · 2030s and 2050s
- Steady increase in CVD burden across all scenarios
- By the 2050s under RCP8.5 with population growth and no adaptation, total attributable burden projected to more than double vs baseline; largest increase in the Northern Territory
- Impacts could be mitigated with effective human adaptation
Original publication
High temperature and cardiovascular disease in Australia under different climatic, demographic, and adaptive scenarios. Eur Heart J. Published 17 March 2025. doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehaf117
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it