Arrhythmias & electrophysiologyCohort study
Hypothetical interventions and risk of atrial fibrillation by sex and education: application of the parametric g-formula in the Tromsø Study
- Prospective population-based cohort study
- parametric g-formula
- hypothetical interventions
Authors' conclusion
The population burden of AF could be reduced by modifying lifestyle risk factors.
Study context
- Population
- Women and men from the population-based Tromsø Study, Norway, 1994–2016
- Participants
- 14,923 women
- Exposure
- Women vs Men
- Outcome
- Long-term risk of AF under hypothetical interventions on smoking, physical activity, alcohol intake, BMI, SBP and DBP
- Follow-up
- Maximum of 22 years
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Cumulative AF risk · maximum 22 years
Risk reduction (95% CI)
Women
41%(17%–61%)
Men
14%(−7% to 30%)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | Estimate |
|---|---|
| AF risk with BMI lowered to ≤ 25 kg/m² (most effective single intervention) — Women | lower risk 16% (CI 4%–25%) |
| AF risk with BMI lowered to ≤ 25 kg/m² (most effective single intervention) — Men | lower risk 14% (CI 6%–23%) |
| AF risk with sufficient physical activity — Women | lower risk 7% (CI −4% to 18%) |
| AF risk with sufficient physical activity — Men | increased risk 8% (CI −2% to −13%) |
Atrial fibrillation (AF) risk with sufficient physical activity
- Significant sex-differences in relative risk reduction
Risk reduction by education level
- No association between education level and differences in risk reduction by any intervention
Original publication
Hypothetical interventions and risk of atrial fibrillation by sex and education: application of the parametric g-formula in the Tromsø Study. Eur J Prev Cardiol. Published 19 July 2023. doi:10.1093/eurjpc/zwad240
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it