Arrhythmias & electrophysiologyDiagnostic or prognostic study
Identifying patients at low risk for atrial fibrillation after cryptogenic stroke: the PAVA score
- Prognostic risk score development and validation study
- multicentre
- consecutive patients
- random split development and validation cohorts
- internal validation
- competing risks
Authors' conclusion
A PAVA score ≤ 2 demonstrates a high negative predictive value for AF/AT on ILR after cryptogenic stroke, offering a practical tool to optimize patient prioritization for ILR implantation.
Study context
- Population
- Patients who received an ILR after cryptogenic stroke
- Participants
- 1,002 patients
- Comparison
- Development vs Validation
- Developmentn = 668
- Outcome
- First episode of AF or atrial tachycardia (AT)
Performance
As reported in the abstract
PAVA score performance for AF/AT
| Test or model | c-index | 3-year AUC | NPV (PAVA score ≤ 2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Development | 0.73 | 0.800 | 89.2% |
| Validation | 0.79 | 0.905 | 100% |
- PAVA score ≤ 2 observed in
- 23.6%
Further findings
- Cumulative incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF)/AT (development cohort) · 1, 2 and 3 years
- 20.3% · 1 year · 2 years 28.9% · 3 years 33.0%
Original publication
Identifying patients at low risk for atrial fibrillation after cryptogenic stroke: the PAVA score. Europace. Published 3 September 2026. doi:10.1093/europace/euag183
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it