Prevention & lipidsCohort study
Incidence and burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to extreme heat in China
- Observational study using national surveillance data
- distributed lag non-linear model
Study context
- Population
- Incident acute cardiovascular disease (CVD) cases from CVD surveillance in China, 2023
- Participants
- 856,357 incident acute CVD cases
- Exposure
- Extreme heat and all heat exposure vs minimum incidence temperature
- Outcome
- Acute CVD incidence by temperature; heat-attributable fraction and number
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Acute CVD incidence with extreme heat (cumulative)
Cumulative RR
1.17
95% CI 1.05–1.30
Extreme heat vs MIT
cumulative RR 1.17 (95% CI 1.05–1.30)
- Attributable fraction, all heat
- 3.19%
- Attributable fraction, extreme heat
- 0.08%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Acute CVD incidence with extreme heat, by subgroup
| Comparison | RR (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| Extreme heat · aged ≥65 years | 1.20 (1.05–1.37) | |
| Extreme heat · rural populations | 1.18 (1.01–1.37) | |
| Extreme heat · temperate monsoon and temperate continental climates | 1.25 (1.05–1.49) | |
| 0.512Relative risk (log scale) |
Minimum incidence temperature (MIT)
- MIT range, northern to southern regions; highest MITs in tropical areas
- 16.0°C to 26.2°C
Original publication
Incidence and burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to extreme heat in China. Eur J Prev Cardiol. Published 15 October 2025. doi:10.1093/eurjpc/zwaf643
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it