Arrhythmias & electrophysiologyCohort study
Insulin sensitivity, genetic predisposition, and risk of atrial fibrillation: A prospective cohort study
- prospective cohort study
Authors' conclusion
eGDR demonstrates dose-dependent protective effects against AF across all genetic risk categories, highlighting insulin resistance as a potential intervention target for AF prevention.
Study context
- Population
- Participants in the UK Biobankmedian follow-up of 13.53 years, 29,464 atrial fibrillation (AF) cases identified
- Participants
- 431,572 participants
- Exposure
- Estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) and genetic predisposition in relation to incident AF
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
AF incidence across eGDR quartiles
Higher eGDR quartiles demonstrated significantly lower AF incidence (log-rank)
P < .001
L-shaped nonlinear association (P nonlinear)
< .001
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | HR (95% CI) | P value | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Incident AF per unit increase in eGDR · 9% reduction in AF risk | 0.91 (0.91–0.92) | P < 0.001 | |
| Incident AF by eGDR quartile · stepwise risk reduction across quartiles | 0.67 (0.63–0.70) | P < 0.001 | |
| Incident AF by combined PRS and eGDR · 74% lower AF risk | 0.26 (0.23–0.28) | P < 0.001 | |
| 0.20.5125Hazard ratio (log scale) |
Original publication
Insulin sensitivity, genetic predisposition, and risk of atrial fibrillation: A prospective cohort study. Heart Rhythm. Published 10 October 2025. doi:10.1016/j.hrthm.2025.10.015
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it