Prevention & lipidsCohort study
Low-density Lipoprotein Cholesterol (LDL-C)–Related Cardiovascular Burden in China 2010 to 2030
- Population-based study (comparative risk assessment)
- 3 nationally and provincially representative surveys
- decomposition analysis
- projections to 2030 under 5 LDL-C control scenarios
Authors' conclusion
High LDL-C remains a considerable public health challenge in China.
Study context
- Population
- Adults in China, 2010–2020, with projections to 20303 surveys
- Participants
- 644,189 adults
- Outcome
- Deaths and years of life lost attributable to high LDL-C
- Follow-up
- 2010 to 2020, projections to 2030
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Burden attributable to high LDL-C · 2020
- Age-standardized LDL-C level, adults aged ≥25 years
- 112.33 mg/dL (95% UI 99.97-124.68 mg/dL)
- Age-standardized LDL-C level in mmol/L
- 2.91 mmol/L (95% UI 2.59-3.23 mmol/L)
- Attributable deaths
- 813.53 thousand (95% UI 774.81-860.30 thousand)
- Attributable years of life lost
- 16,108.31 thousand (95% UI 15,612.47-16,685.53 thousand)
- Increase in age-standardized attributable mortality rate, 2010–2020
- 34.41%
- Increase in number of attributable deaths, 2010–2020
- 94.02%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Projected attributable mortality rate if current LDL-C trends continue · 2030
- 2020
- 79.97 per 100,000 people (95% UI 76.16-84.57 per 100,000 people)
- 2030 projection
- 155.52 per 100,000 people (95% UI 141.73-174.65 per 100,000 people)
- Only a reduction of at least 10% in LDL-C levels by 2030 vs 2020 would decrease attributable mortality rate by 2030
Drivers of change in attributable deaths (decomposition) · 2010–2020
- Increase closely associated with increasing LDL-C levels, population growth and population ageing
Original publication
LDL-C–Related Cardiovascular Burden in China 2010 to 2030. J Am Coll Cardiol. Published 15 October 2025. doi:10.1016/j.jacc.2025.09.1592
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it