Heart failure & cardiomyopathiesCohort study
Longitudinal trajectories of albuminuria and risk of subclinical and clinical heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and coronary heart disease: the MESA study
- Prospective cohort study
- latent class mixed modelling
Authors' conclusion
Progressive UACR increases identify individuals at elevated cardiovascular risk, particularly for HF.
Study context
- Population
- Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants (mean age 61.7 years)10-year sample n = 4,343
- Participants
- 5,581 participants
- Exposure
- Urine albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR) trajectory groups over 5 and 10 years
- Outcome
- Subclinical and clinical HF, HF subtypes, AF and CHD
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
HF, HF subtypes, composite of HF/death, AF and CHD
Sustained medium to high (5-year) and rapid rise (10-year) groups had higher risks of heart failure (HF), HF subtypes, HF/death, atrial fibrillation (AF) and coronary heart disease (CHD)
1.5- to 3.7-fold
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
HF, HFpEF, HFrEF after censoring for interim AF or CHD
- Associations persisted for HF and HFpEF, but not HFrEF
N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity troponin T (hs-TnT), native T1, extracellular volume fraction
- Elevated in these trajectory groups
Original publication
Longitudinal trajectories of albuminuria and risk of subclinical and clinical heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and coronary heart disease: the MESA study. Eur J Prev Cardiol. Published 3 November 2025. doi:10.1093/eurjpc/zwaf699
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it