Mapping Cardiovascular Prediction Models in the General Population: Where Are We Now and Where Next?
Authors' conclusion
Despite a substantial increase in CVD prediction model development, critical gaps persist in external validation, reporting transparency, and clinical impact assessment. Future research should prioritize strengthening the evidence base of existing models through rigorous validation, transparent reporting, and implementation research.
Study context
- Population
- Studies that developed, validated, updated, or assessed the impact of at least one cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction model in the general population (PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, January 2006 to November 2025)studies included · development studies 220 · independent validation or update studies 94 · studies providing impact assessments eight
- Participants
- 322 studies
- Outcome
- Justification in development studies
Methodological detailstwo reviewers independently screened studies and extracted data, findings summarized descriptively
- Two reviewers independently screened studies and extracted data
- Findings summarized descriptively
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Development studies citing at least one existing model (of the 220 development studies)
90.0%
Most frequently cited justification: insufficient predictors
44.4%
Further findings
Validation, updating and impact assessment of models
- Models developed (from 220 development studies)
- 298
- Internal validation (among the 298 models)
- 86.6%
- External validation (among the 298 models)
- 43.0%
- Updating (among the 298 models)
- 8.7%
- Impact assessment (among the 298 models)
- 2.3%
- Impact assessments (from eight studies, involving seven models)
- nine
Reporting completeness
- Reported both discrimination and calibration
- 82.3%
- Provided full model specification
- 49.4%
- Offered a practical tool
- 51.1%
- Models published after 2015 citing the TRIPOD guideline
- 24.3%
- Reported to be recommended in clinical guidelines
- 11.1%
Original publication
Mapping Cardiovascular Prediction Models in the General Population: Where Are We Now and Where Next? Eur Heart J Qual Care Clin Outcomes. Published 6 November 2026. doi:10.
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