Heart failure & cardiomyopathiesSecondary analysis
Mortality benefit and lifetime survival gains with vericiguat in HF and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF): Bayesian and actuarial analyses of the VICTOR trial
- Post hoc analysis of the VICTOR randomised trial
- Bayesian analysis
- actuarial analysis
Authors' conclusion
In this post hoc analysis, Bayesian and actuarial methods provided hypothesis-generating evidence of a cardiovascular mortality benefit with vericiguat in HFrEF, an endpoint for which the trial was prospectively powered, that warrants prospective confirmation.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with HFrEF
- Comparison
- Vericiguat vs placebo
Primary result
As reported in the abstract
CV mortality, posterior probability of benefit
- Sceptical prior: any benefit
- 98.4%
- Sceptical prior: ≥10% relative reduction
- 77.6%
- Sceptical prior: ≥20% reduction
- 20.4%
- VICTORIA-based optimistic prior: any benefit
- 99.1%
- VICTORIA-based optimistic prior: ≥10% relative reduction
- 60.7%
- VICTORIA-based optimistic prior: ≥20% reduction
- 2.2%
Further findings
All-cause mortality (Bayesian)
- Similar results to CV mortality
Event-free survival (restricted mean survival time (RMST)) · 1 and 2 years
- Greater event-free survival with vericiguat
Projected lifetime overall survival gain
- Largest gain, aged 55 to 60 at randomization
- ∼1.6 to 1.9 years
Parts of this Brief are withheld: the automatic checks could not confirm them against the abstract.
Original publication
Mortality benefit and lifetime survival gains with vericiguat in HFrEF: Bayesian and actuarial analyses of the VICTOR trial. Eur J Heart Fail. Published 16 September 2026. doi:10.1093/ejhf/xuag267
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it