Heart failure & cardiomyopathiesCohort study

Optimizing NT-proBNP Inclusion Cut-offs for Randomized Clinical Trials in Heart Failure: Data from the Swedish Heart Failure Registry

ESC Heart FailPublished

  • registry-based analysis
  • Swedish heart failure (HF) Registry (SwedeHF)

Authors' conclusion

Higher NT-proBNP cut-offs were associated with increased event enrichment but also higher screening failure. These findings support the use of higher cut-offs currently used in HF RCTs and suggest that future trials should tailor NT-proBNP cut-offs to trial aims, balancing enrichment with enrolment feasibility and considering obesity and CKD in addition to EF and AF.

Study context

Population
Heart failure patients in the Swedish HF Registry
Participants
43,750 HF patients
Exposure
NT-proBNP cut-offs from prior randomized controlled trials (RCTs) (200-5000 pg/mL) across subgroups by ejection fraction (EF), care setting, atrial fibrillation (AF), chronic kidney disease (CKD) and obesity

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

Median NT-proBNP by subgroup

Median NT-proBNP lower in HFpEF/HFmrEF vs HFrEF, outpatients vs inpatients, sinus rhythm vs AF, obese vs not obese, and patients without CKD vs with CKD

all p < 0.001

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Further findings

OutcomeValues
1-year composite CV proportion in HFrEF outpatientsno cut-off 22.0% · ≥600 pg/mL 24.3% · ≥1,200 pg/mL 26.2%
Screening failure in HFrEF outpatients≥600 pg/mL 16.0% · ≥1,200 pg/mL 26.4%
1-year composite CV proportion in HFrEF outpatients — relative increase
19% (95% CI:14.0-24.4)

1-year composite CV outcome (CV death or first HF hospitalisation) by cut-off

Higher NT-proBNP cut-offs increased 1-year composite CV proportions but excluded more patients

Optimal prognostic thresholds (Youden's index)

Optimal prognostic thresholds aligned with or exceeded subgroup median NT-proBNP values

Original publication

Optimizing NT-proBNP Inclusion Cut-offs for Randomized Clinical Trials in Heart Failure: Data from the Swedish Heart Failure Registry. ESC Heart Fail. Published 27 March 2026. doi:10.1093/eschf/xvag089

Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it