Heart failure & cardiomyopathies
Performance of the PRIMaCY sudden death risk prediction model for childhood hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: implications for implantable cardioverter-defibrillator decision-making
Authors' conclusion
Although PRIMaCY has a similar discriminatory ability to that reported for HCM Risk-Kids, estimated risk estimates did not correlate well with observed risk. A higher proportion of patients met implantable cardioverter-defibrillator thresholds using PRIMaCY model compared with HCM Risk-Kids.
Study context
- Population
- Children meeting diagnostic criteria for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) in a large single-centre cohort
- Participants
- 301 children
- Exposure
- PRIMaCY vs HCM Risk-Kids sudden cardiac death (SCD) risk models
- Outcome
- SCD or equivalent event; performance of estimated 5-year SCD risk
Methodological detailssingle-centre, Mean follow-up 4.9 (±3.8) years; median age 10 (IQR 4-14)
- Single-centre
- Mean follow-up 4.9 (±3.8) years; median age 10 (IQR 4-14)
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Model performance for 5-year SCD risk
| Group | NNT to potentially treat one life-threatening arrhythmia |
|---|---|
| PRIMaCY clinical | 13.7 |
| PRIMaCY genetic | 14.5 |
| HCM Risk-Kids | 9.4 |
NNT to potentially treat one life-threatening arrhythmia
PRIMaCY clinical13.7
PRIMaCY genetic14.5
HCM Risk-Kids9.4
- Harrell's C-statistic, clinical model
- 0.66 (95% CI 0.52-0.8)
- Harrell's C-statistic, genetic model
- 0.66 (95% CI 0.54-0.80)
- Calibration slope, clinical model
- 0.19 (95% CI 0.04-0.54)
- Calibration slope, genetic model
- 0.26 (95% CI −0.03-0.62)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Original publication
Performance of the PRIMaCY sudden death risk prediction model for childhood hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: implications for implantable cardioverter-defibrillator decision-making. Europace. Published 23 November 2023. doi:10.
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it