Arrhythmias & electrophysiology
Polygenic risk scores enhance prediction of atrial fibrillation disease progression: An analysis of the UK Biobank
Main finding · Time to AF progression (ICD-10 diagnosis of chronic or persistent AF, or requirement for electrical cardioversion)Result — go to the resultHazard ratio 1.54 95% CI 1.21–1.96Authors' conclusion
AF polygenic risk independently predicts progression from paroxysmal to persistent AF and enhances risk stratification beyond clinical factors.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) (based on International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, coding) in the UK Biobankindividuals with paroxysmal AF (median age at diagnosis 73 years, 47% women)
- Participants
- 7,128 individuals
- Comparison
- AF-PRS tertiles, after adjustment for clinical risk factors
- Outcome
- Time to AF progression (ICD-10 diagnosis of chronic or persistent AF, or requirement for electrical cardioversion)
- Follow-up
- Median 3.0 years
Methodological detailsmultivariable Cox regression
- Multivariable Cox regression
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Time to AF progression (ICD-10 diagnosis of chronic or persistent AF, or requirement for electrical cardioversion)
Hazard ratio
1.54
95% CI 1.21–1.96
P < 0.001
By group
High AF-PRS tertile vs low AF-PRS tertile
hazard ratio 1.54 (95% CI 1.21–1.96); P < 0.001
- AF progression occurred overall
- 7.3%
Further findings
Addition of AF-PRS to a clinical-only model
- Net reclassification improvement
- 15.1%
- P = .016
Original publication
Polygenic risk scores enhance prediction of atrial fibrillation disease progression: An analysis of the UK Biobank. Heart Rhythm. Published 2 July 2026. doi:10.
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it