Prevention & lipidsSecondary analysis
Predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk reduction with tirzepatide use over 3 years for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in obesity
- Post hoc analysis of the SURMOUNT-1 randomised trial
- phase 3
- double-blind
Authors' conclusion
These findings suggest that tirzepatide was associated with a lower predicted 10-year CVD risk vs placebo with long-term (3 years) treatment in individuals with obesity/overweight and prediabetes.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals with obesity/overweight and prediabetes without pre-existing cardiovascular disease (CVD) (primary prevention)962 analysed
- Participants
- 2,539 individuals
- Comparison
- Tirzepatide vs placebo
- Primary endpoint
- Change in predicted 10-year CVD risk (Framingham Heart Study equation)
- Follow-up
- 176 weeks
Primary result
Predicted 10-year CVD risk change from baseline · Week 176
Hazard ratio
0.62
P < 0.001
By group
Tirzepatide
−1.31%
Absolute risk reduction (ARR)
Placebo
3.84%
Absolute risk increase (ARI)
As reported in the abstract
Further findings
| Outcome | Tirzepatide | Placebo | HR | P value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predicted 10-year CVD risk change, tirzepatide 15 mg · Week 72 · model-derived HR | 0.73 | P < 0.001 | ||
| ARI | Not reported in the abstract | 1.10% |
- Predicted 10-year CVD risk change, tirzepatide 15 mg: Tirzepatide 15 mg ARR −1.92%
Validation in REWIND: dulaglutide vs placebo HR, predicted vs observed CV events
- HR based on risk prediction
- 0.83
- HR based on observed CV events
- 0.85
Original publication
Predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk reduction with tirzepatide use over 3 years for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in obesity. Eur J Prev Cardiol. Published 10 August 2026. doi:10.1093/eurjpc/zwag408
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it