Heart failure & cardiomyopathiesCohort study
Predicted Risk, Preclinical Heart Failure Measures, and Incident Heart Failure
- Prospective cohort study
- ARIC Visit 5
Authors' conclusion
Preclinical HF measures indicate higher absolute HF risk within PREVENT-HF categories and enhance HF risk prediction.
Study context
- Population
- ARIC Visit 5 participants <80 years without baseline CVD262 heart failure (HF) events
- Participants
- 2,714 participants
- Exposure
- No preclinical HF vs Elevated biomarkers plus abnormal echocardiography
- Outcome
- Incident HF; preclinical HF prevalence and added predictive value beyond PREVENT-HF
- Follow-up
- 10-year
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
HF incidence rate (per 1,000 person-years), PREVENT-HF ≥20% · median follow-up 9.9 years
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | Estimate | P value |
|---|---|---|
| Adding cardiac biomarkers to PREVENT-HF — PREVENT-HF + biomarkers vs PREVENT-HF | C statistic change 0.69 to 0.75 | P < 0.001 |
| Adding cardiac biomarkers to PREVENT-HF — PREVENT-HF + biomarkers vs PREVENT-HF | categorical Net Reclassification Index 0.17 (95% CI 0.09–0.26) |
Preclinical HF prevalence by PREVENT-HF risk
- Combined elevated biomarkers plus abnormal echocardiograms, PREVENT-HF ≥20%
- 37%
- Higher PREVENT-HF risk associated with higher preclinical HF prevalence
Adding cardiac biomarkers to PREVENT-HF
- Modest further improvement from adding echocardiographic measures
Original publication
Predicted Risk, Preclinical Heart Failure Measures, and Incident Heart Failure. JACC Heart Fail. Published 3 October 2025. doi:10.1016/j.jchf.2025.102659
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it