Predicting the 10-Year Risks of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Chinese Population: The China-PAR Project (Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) Risk in China)
Authors' conclusion
Our project developed effective tools with good performance for 10-year ASCVD risk prediction among a Chinese population that will help to improve the primary prevention and management of cardiovascular disease.
Study context
- Population
- Chinese adults, 4 contemporary Chinese cohortsderivation cohort
- Participants
- 21,320 adults
- Comparison
- China-PAR equations vs Pooled Cohort Equations
- Outcome
- First ASCVD event (10-year risk prediction)
- Follow-up
- 10 years
Methodological detailsprospective derivation cohort, external validation in 2 independent cohorts
- Prospective derivation cohort
- External validation in 2 independent cohorts
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Discrimination and calibration of China-PAR equations · over 12 years of follow-up
| Test or model | C statistic | Calibration χ2 |
|---|---|---|
| Men | 0.794 (95% CI 0.775-0.814) | 13.1 (P=0.16) |
| Women | 0.811 (95% CI 0.787-0.835) | 12.8 (P=0.17) |
C statistic
Men0.794 (95% CI 0.775-0.814)
Women0.811 (95% CI 0.787-0.835)
Calibration χ2
Men13.1 (P=0.16)
Women12.8 (P=0.17)
- First ASCVD event in derivation cohort
- 1048
Further findings
Internal and external validation
- Good internal and external validation (external cohorts n = 14 123 and 70 838)
Comparison with Pooled Cohort Equations
- Pooled Cohort Equations had lower C statistics and much higher calibration χ2 values in men
Original publication
Predicting the 10-Year Risks of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Chinese Population: The China-PAR Project (Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China). Circulation. Published 28 September 2016. doi:10.
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it