Heart failure & cardiomyopathiesDiagnostic or prognostic study
Predicting 30-day mortality after hospital admission for heart failure: the National Heart Failure Audit for England and Wales
- risk model developed using logistic regression with robust SEs
- temporal validation
- geographical validation
Authors' conclusion
A risk model based on a few widely available variables accurately predicts mortality within 30 days of hospital admission for heart failure, which may enable fair comparisons between hospitals in England and Wales.
Study context
- Population
- Patients coded at discharge (or death) as having heart failure as the primary reason for admission, National Heart Failure Audit for England and Walespatients available for model development · Model development 54,080 · 2018-2019 validation cohort 43,942
- Participants
- 54,080 patients
- Comparison
- Development dataset vs 2018-2019 validation cohort
- Development datasetn = 54,080
- 2018-2019 validation cohortn = 43,942
Performance
As reported in the abstract
30-day mortality from the day of admission: model discrimination · 30 days
Variables contributing to the model
Ten
C-statistic
0.80 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.81)
Further findings
Calibration
- Calibration slope
- 1.00 (95% CI 0.97 to 1.03)
- Calibration-in-the-large
- −0.02 (95% CI −0.06 to 0.01)
- Observed and predicted mortality showed good agreement across all deciles of risk
Temporal validation
- Model performance for subsequent years was similar
Geographical validation
- Geographical validation was similarly satisfactory
Parts of this Brief are withheld: the automatic checks could not confirm them against the abstract.
Original publication
Predicting 30-day mortality after hospital admission for heart failure: the National Heart Failure Audit for England and Wales. Heart. Published 6 January 2026. doi:10.1136/heartjnl-2025-326731
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it