Heart failure & cardiomyopathiesDiagnostic or prognostic study
Prediction of incident heart failure in established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease: the SMART2-HF model
- Risk prediction model development and external validation study
- derivation cohort (UCC-SMART)
- external validation in six data sources
- competing-risk adjusted
Authors' conclusion
The SMART2-HF model enables the prediction of incident HF in patients with ASCVD.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) (coronary, cerebrovascular or PAD, or AAA) without prior heart failure (HF)external validation n = 240,741
- Participants
- 7,698 patients
- Outcome
- Incident HF (hospitalization for HF or HF-related death); model discrimination and calibration
- Follow-up
- 10-year and lifetime risk
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Discrimination of SMART2-HF in external validation
Pooled C-statistic
.696 (95% CI .674-.717)
Further findings
Incident HF events · median follow-up 11.2 years (IQR 6.1-16.4 years)
- UCC-SMART cohort
- 1031 (13%)
- External validation data sources
- 24 885 (10%)
Original publication
Prediction of incident heart failure in established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease: the SMART2-HF model. Eur Heart J. Published 11 March 2026. doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehag153
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it