Heart failure & cardiomyopathiesDiagnostic or prognostic study
Prediction of incident heart failure in men and women with a history of myocardial infarction
- development and validation of a clinically viable prediction model
- Backward selected Cox proportional hazards models
- internal- and hold-out validation
Authors' conclusion
Our study identifies several clinically accessible blood biomarkers as important risk factors for HF in post-MI individuals, and suggests interactions between sex and MI subtype. Further model refinement and external validation are needed.
Study context
- Population
- UK Biobank participants with prior myocardial infarction (MI) but absence of heart failure (HF) at baselineparticipants with prevalent MI, 81.4% male, median (P25-P75) age 62 (58–66) years
- Participants
- 4,743 participants
- Outcome
- first in-hospital HF diagnosis
- Follow-up
- Median 12.1 (11.1-13.0) years
Performance
As reported in the abstract
developed HF
767 (16.2%)
Further findings
Independent predictors of incident HF
| Comparison | Estimate | |
|---|---|---|
| haemoglobin · after treating all-cause mortality as a competing risk | HR per 1 standard deviation (SD) increase 0.88 (95% CI 0.79–0.96) | |
| mean reticulocyte volume · after treating all-cause mortality as a competing risk | HR 1.13 (95% CI 1.03–1.23) | |
| neutrophil percentage · after treating all-cause mortality as a competing risk | HR 1.12 (95% CI 1.03–1.21) | |
| monocyte count · after treating all-cause mortality as a competing risk | HR 1.11 (95% CI 1.06–1.16) | |
| 0.512Ratio (log scale) |
- Independent predictors of incident HF — Sixteen independent predictors were identified and eleven remained significant
- P < .05
Independent predictors of incident HF
- well-established predictors (age, body mass index, smoking, atrial fibrillation, diabetes)
Interaction between sex and MI subtype
- A trend towards an interaction
- P < 0.1
Model performance
- C-index
- 0.67
- calibration was adequate
- Model discrimination was modest
Original publication
Prediction of incident heart failure in men and women with a history of myocardial infarction. ESC Heart Fail. Published 30 June 2026. doi:10.1093/eschf/xvag187
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it