Prevention & lipidsDiagnostic or prognostic study
Prediction of individual lifetime cardiovascular risk and potential treatment benefit: development and recalibration of the LIFE-CVD2 model to four European risk regions
- Risk prediction model development and external validation study
- individual participant data
- 44 derivation cohorts in 13 countries
- recalibrated to four European risk regions
- competing-risk adjusted
Authors' conclusion
By taking into account geographical differences in CVD incidence using contemporary representative data sources, the recalibrated LIFE-CVD2 model provides a more accurate tool for the prediction of lifetime risk and CVD-free life expectancy for individuals without previous CVD
Study context
- Population
- Apparently healthy individuals without established CVD, four European risk regions
- Participants
- 687,135 individuals · 44 cohorts
- Outcome
- Lifetime risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD events (model discrimination and calibration)
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Discrimination in external validation
Pooled C-index, external validation (1 657 707 individuals, 61 311 CVD events, 8 cohorts)
0.795 (95% CI 0.767-0.822)
Further findings
Estimated gain in CVD-free life expectancy, 50-year-old smoking woman, systolic blood pressure (SBP) 140 mmHg
years
- Lifelong 10 mmHg SBP reduction, low-risk region
- 0.9
- Lifelong 10 mmHg SBP reduction, very high-risk region
- 1.6
- Smoking cessation, low-risk region
- 3.6
- Smoking cessation, very high-risk region
- 4.8
Original publication
Prediction of individual lifetime cardiovascular risk and potential treatment benefit: development and recalibration of the LIFE-CVD2 model to four European risk regions. Eur J Prev Cardiol. Published 16 May 2024. doi:10.1093/eurjpc/zwae174
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it