Valvular & structural heart disease

Prediction of the Individual Aortic Stenosis Progression Rate and its Association With Clinical Outcomes

JACC AdvPublished Retrospective cohort study

Authors' conclusion

AVA decreases linearly in individual patients, and faster progression is independently associated with higher mortality.

Study context

Population
Patients with moderate AS presenting December 2011–December 2022 with echocardiograms available
Participants
540 patients2,937 echocardiograms
Outcome
Predictors of AS progression rate (AVA decline) and its association with clinical outcomes
Methodological detailslongitudinal, single-centre
  • Longitudinal
  • Single-centre

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

AS progression rate

Median aortic valve area (AVA) decrease (linear progression)

0.09 cm²/y

Median peak jet velocity increase

0.17 m/s/y

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Further findings

Rapid progression and clinical outcomes

HR (95% CI)
Rapid progressionAll-cause mortality · independently associated1.77 (1.26–2.48)
Rapid progressionAortic valve replacement · independently associated3.44 (2.55–4.64)

Original publication

Prediction of the Individual Aortic Stenosis Progression Rate and its Association With Clinical Outcomes. JACC Adv. Published 6 March 2024. doi:10.1016/j.jacadv.2024.100879

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