Prevention & lipidsCross-sectional study
Projected US Cardiovascular Disease Burden From Heat Exposure for Future Greenhouse Gas Scenarios
- Cross-sectional ecological analysis
- county-level summary data
- projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5
Authors' conclusion
Heat-attributable CVD burden will increase substantially by 2050, disproportionately affecting economically vulnerable populations.
Study context
- Population
- All counties in the contiguous US, 2010–2016, with projections to 2030 and 2050all contiguous US counties
- Exposure
- Baseline vs SSP2-4.5 vs SSP5-8.5
- Outcome
- Heat-attributable CVD burden (DALY per 100 000 population) and population attributable fraction, stratified by age, income and geography
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Heat-attributable CVD burden
Baseline
138.5
median · disability-adjusted life-year (DALYs) per 100 000
SSP5-8.5
418.2
DALYs per 100 000
- SSP5-8.5 by 2050: approximately additional annual cardiovascular deaths
- 50 000 to 70 000
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Geography
- Pacific Northwest highest baseline burden; Southern and Midwestern states steepest projected increases
Demographic aging · 2050
- Additional heat-attributable cardiovascular disease (CVD) DALY independent of temperature increases
- 34%
Income
- Middle- and low-income counties: approximately twice the relative increases of high-income counties
Original publication
Projected US Cardiovascular Disease Burden From Heat Exposure for Future Greenhouse Gas Scenarios. JAMA Cardiol. Published 1 July 2026. doi:10.1001/jamacardio.2026.1240
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it