Diagnostic or prognostic study
Recurrent venous thromboembolism and bleeding with extended anticoagulation: the VTE-PREDICT risk score
- Prediction model development and external validation study
- individual patient data
- competing risk-adjusted models
Models use 14 readily available patient characteristics; absolute treatment effects estimated by combining the models with HRs from trials and meta-analyses
Authors' conclusion
The VTE-PREDICT risk score can be applied to estimate the effect of extended anticoagulant treatment for individual patients with VTE and to support shared decision-making.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) without cancer who completed at least 3 months of initial treatment
- Outcome
- Prediction of recurrent VTE and clinically relevant bleeding (non-major and major)
- Follow-up
- Up to 5 years
Performance
As reported in the abstract
External validation: discrimination (C-statistic)
| Test or model | C-statistic, recurrence | C-statistic, bleeding |
|---|---|---|
| External validation | 0.48-0.71 | 0.61-0.68 |
Further findings
| Outcome | Derivation | External validation |
|---|---|---|
| Events | ||
| Recurrences | 220 | 2283 |
| Bleeding events | 189 | 3335 |
Predicted 5-year risks in the Danish VTE cohort · up to 5 years
- Recurrent VTE, range
- 4% to 19%
- Bleeding, range
- 1% −19%
Parts of this Brief are withheld: the automatic checks could not confirm them against the abstract.
Original publication
Recurrent venous thromboembolism and bleeding with extended anticoagulation: the VTE-PREDICT risk score. Eur Heart J. Published 17 January 2023. doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehac776
Summarised from the published abstract; every number is checked against it